Why Military May Take Over Nigeria – Political Analyst

A political analyst has revealed why the military may take over Nigeria.

Philips News reports that a political analyst, Aminu Rabiu, has warned that Nigeria may be drifting towards a one-party dominant system, a situation he says could weaken democracy and even create conditions for a possible military takeover.

This newspaper understands that Rabiu revealed this in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST.

The political analyst said that although Nigeria is constitutionally a multi-party state, recent mass defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) suggest a growing dominance that is unprecedented in the country’s political history.

“Based on the current realities and the mass defections we are seeing, it is obvious that the country is drifting towards one-party dominance under the APC,” he said.

Rabiu compared the situation to 1993 under former military ruler, Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, who introduced a two-party system with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Convention (NRC).

“Even under military rule, two parties existed side by side. So why not under democracy?” he asked.

He warned that the trend poses serious risks to democratic governance, noting that a weakened opposition would reduce checks and balances.

“If it becomes a one-party system, there will be no checks and balances. Opposition parties help to ensure transparency and hold the ruling party accountable,” he said.

Rabiu explained that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has been the main opposition since losing power in 2015 when former President Muhammadu Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan, is now weakened by internal crises, leadership struggles, and legal battles.

According to him, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is emerging as a new opposition platform, with politicians from different parties forming a coalition to challenge the ruling party.

He, however, alleged that state institutions are being used to target opposition figures.

“It is obvious that the government is using legal institutions to witch-hunt opposition leaders,” he said.

Rabiu cited the cases of Nasir El-Rufai and Abubakar Malami, claiming they are facing actions linked to their opposition stance.

According to him, such developments could lead to an unchecked executive arm of government.

“When the executive is unchecked, there is a likelihood that corruption will increase and we will not have an accountable democracy,” he said.

He further warned that the situation could create conditions similar to those that led to past military interventions in Nigeria.

The analyst referenced the First Republic, where the dominance of the Northern People’s Congress (NPC) and efforts to weaken opposition parties contributed to the January 1966 military coup.

Rabiu also cited the Second Republic, when the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) allegedly used state power against opposition parties such as the PRP, GNPP and UPN, a situation that preceded the 1983 military takeover.

“This kind of political environment can create a fertile ground for military intervention,” he said.

Rabiu noted that the growing dominance of the ruling party is evident in the number of governors joining it.

“It is unprecedented that about 30 or 31 out of 36 governors are now in the ruling party. From January to now, several governors have defected,” he said.

He also warned that the trend could lead to voter apathy in future elections.

“People may begin to feel that whether they vote or not, the ruling party will still win. This could reduce participation in the 2027 elections,” he said.

He stressed that a weak opposition would further reduce accountability and transparency in governance.

Rabiu called for urgent action, including civic education, stronger engagement by civil society organisations and intervention from the international community.